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ANTICIPATE and ANTICIPATE-NASH models to predict the risk of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) and risk of liver-related events (LRE) in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD)

These online calculators are useful to calculate the estimated risk of CSPH in cACLD patients based on ANTICIPATE and ANTICIPATE-NASH models. Both models have been externally validated. These calculators can help clinicians and investigators to predict the probability of CSPH (i. e. HVPG ≥10 mmHg) for any patient using only non-invasive tests.

According to Baveno VII guidelines, in patients with virus- and/or alcohol-related cACLD the ANTICIPATE model can be used to predict the risk of CSPH. In patients with NASH-related cACLD, the risk of CSPH should be calculated using the ANTICIPATE-NASH model

Another utility of these online calculators is to calculate the risk of developing LRE in patients with NASH-related cACLD. The ANTICIPATE-LRE and ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE models have been externally validated to predict the risk of developing LRE (hepatocellular carcinoma, clinical decompensation and liver-related death) at 3 years of follow-up. Both models, have shown a good discrimination for predicting LRE but if all three parameters are available (LSM, platelet count and BMI), ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE is preferable to calculate the risk in NASH-related cACLD patients.

For more information, please refer to the original manuscripts:

[1]. Abraldes, J. G., Bureau, C., Stefanescu, H., Augustin, S., Ney, M., Blasco, H., Procopet, B., Bosch, J., Genescà, J., Berzigotti, A.. Noninvasive tools and risk of clinically significant portal hypertension and varices in compensated cirrhosis: The “Anticipate” study. Hepatology 2016; 64, 2173–2184. DOI: 10.1002/HEP.28824

[2]. Pons, M., Augustin, S., Scheiner, B., Guillaume, M., Rosselli, M., Rodrigues, S. G., Stefanescu, H., Ma, M. M., Mandorfer, M., Mergeay-Fabre, M., Procopet, B., Schwabl, P., Ferlitsch, A., Semmler, G., Berzigotti, A., Tsochatzis, E., Bureau, C., Reiberger, T., Bosch, J., Abraldes, J. G., Genescà, J. Noninvasive Diagnosis of Portal Hypertension in Patients With Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease. Am J Gastroenterol 2021; 116, 723–732. DOI: 10.14309/ajg.0000000000000994

[3]. Pons, M., Rivera Esteban, J., Ma, M.M., Davyduke, T., Delamarre, A., Hermabessière, P., Dupuy, J., Lai-Hung Wong, G., Cheuk-Fung Yip, T., Pennisi, G., Tulone, A., Cammà, C., Petta, S., de Lédinghen, V., Wai-Sun Wong, V., Augustin, S., Pericàs, J.M., Abraldes, J.G., Genescà J. Point-of-care non-invasive prediction of liver-related events in patients with NAFLD. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2023. DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2023.08.004

[4]. de Franchis, R., Bosch, J., Garcia-Tsao, G., Reiberger, T., Ripoll, C., Abraldes, J. G., Albillos, A., Baiges, A., Bajaj, J., Bañares, R., Barrufet, M., Benajiba, L., Berzigotti, A., Bureau, C., Calvaruso, V., Cardenas, A., D’Amico, G., de Gottardi, A., Dell’Era, A., Yoshiji, H. Baveno VII - Renewing consensus in portal hypertension. J Hepatol 2022; 76, 959–974. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2021.12.022

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